Tuesday, February 17, 2004
Fear of Migration?
The European Union is about to embark on a grand experiment in free trade. No, Europe isn't going to get rid of its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which ladles billions in subsidies to rich European farmers (and accounting for 2/3rds of the European Union budget) and makes life extremely difficult for developing nations. Nor are they about to slash the hornets nest of anti-dumping duties which are used to keep things like bikes from Thailand out of European markets (though Europe isn't unique in that regard).
Rather, Europe on May 1st will add ten new members to the European Union, an economic area that promises tariff-free trade among member nations (among other things). Many of these nations are located in Eastern Europe, and have economies much poorer than those found in the rest of Europe.
One of the things that European Union membership guarantees is the right of any citizen of a member nation to live, and work, in any other member nation. In other words, Europe is about to find out the degree to which citizens of poorer nations will flow into richer nations when things like border controls and work permits are removed.
Granted, a number of nations, such as Sweden, have opted to delay full rights to new entrants for two years. Others, such as the United Kingdom, have not, and thus will be on the front lines in this social experiment.
A number of doomsday predictions have been made by those against further European integration, and even some who are in favor of it, suggesting that western Europe will be inundated by economic migrants. I, however, would NOT be surprised if the actual numbers are relatively low, simply because most people don't want to go through the trouble of removing themselves from the culture in which they were raised (or for that matter, the language) and transplanting themselves in a foreign country.
Moving to a foreign country is hard. You suddenly find you can't communicate as well as you used to, which is a source of stress. Even if they theoretically speak the same language (Irish and Brits do theoretically speak English), the whole cultural context within which communication takes place, such as references to TV shows you saw as a kid or experience of stores that are popular in the home country, is gone. You are an outsider, and no matter how long you spend in that country, you will ALWAYS be the outsider.
Most people wouldn't want to do that, and so most would prefer to stay in their home country, even if they could make more money by moving elsewhere.
There are, of course, a few caveats. Countries whose home situation is particularly miserable are more likely to want to take advantage of the ability to move to a richer nation, simply because the likelihood of leading a happy life is so much lower. I don't imagine many in the Republic of Congo would stay home, though their ability to afford leaving would be low giving how poor the country is.
Countries with whom you maintain open borders (and open labor movement) should be places where economies are healthy and growing. Most people don't NEED to be as rich as the west, though they like to know that there country is growing fast enough that, someday, the will at least get close.
However, European nations opened their borders to each other, and - big surprise - MOST still decided to stay in their home country. I imagine the same situation would exist if Europe were to open its borders to Americans (or vice versa), or to Japan, or even to South Korea. Most wouldn't bother to go through the trouble of moving to a foreign country, and so the effect would be practically non-existent.
It's worth noting that before the Great Depression, strict residency controls and work permits were not an issue. Someone coming from Europe could work in America, and vice versa. Work permits were part of the whole protectionist agenda dreamed up by world governments at the time, many aspects of which (such as the Smoot-Hawley tariffs) so decimated world trade that they were responsible for dragging the world even deeper into an economic slump.
Of course, some might point out that I'm a person who likes to travel - and work - in foreign countries, and so I'm biased in favor of more lax work permit regulations. Fine, I am. It doesn't mean I'm not right.
The European Union is about to embark on a grand experiment in free trade. No, Europe isn't going to get rid of its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which ladles billions in subsidies to rich European farmers (and accounting for 2/3rds of the European Union budget) and makes life extremely difficult for developing nations. Nor are they about to slash the hornets nest of anti-dumping duties which are used to keep things like bikes from Thailand out of European markets (though Europe isn't unique in that regard).
Rather, Europe on May 1st will add ten new members to the European Union, an economic area that promises tariff-free trade among member nations (among other things). Many of these nations are located in Eastern Europe, and have economies much poorer than those found in the rest of Europe.
One of the things that European Union membership guarantees is the right of any citizen of a member nation to live, and work, in any other member nation. In other words, Europe is about to find out the degree to which citizens of poorer nations will flow into richer nations when things like border controls and work permits are removed.
Granted, a number of nations, such as Sweden, have opted to delay full rights to new entrants for two years. Others, such as the United Kingdom, have not, and thus will be on the front lines in this social experiment.
A number of doomsday predictions have been made by those against further European integration, and even some who are in favor of it, suggesting that western Europe will be inundated by economic migrants. I, however, would NOT be surprised if the actual numbers are relatively low, simply because most people don't want to go through the trouble of removing themselves from the culture in which they were raised (or for that matter, the language) and transplanting themselves in a foreign country.
Moving to a foreign country is hard. You suddenly find you can't communicate as well as you used to, which is a source of stress. Even if they theoretically speak the same language (Irish and Brits do theoretically speak English), the whole cultural context within which communication takes place, such as references to TV shows you saw as a kid or experience of stores that are popular in the home country, is gone. You are an outsider, and no matter how long you spend in that country, you will ALWAYS be the outsider.
Most people wouldn't want to do that, and so most would prefer to stay in their home country, even if they could make more money by moving elsewhere.
There are, of course, a few caveats. Countries whose home situation is particularly miserable are more likely to want to take advantage of the ability to move to a richer nation, simply because the likelihood of leading a happy life is so much lower. I don't imagine many in the Republic of Congo would stay home, though their ability to afford leaving would be low giving how poor the country is.
Countries with whom you maintain open borders (and open labor movement) should be places where economies are healthy and growing. Most people don't NEED to be as rich as the west, though they like to know that there country is growing fast enough that, someday, the will at least get close.
However, European nations opened their borders to each other, and - big surprise - MOST still decided to stay in their home country. I imagine the same situation would exist if Europe were to open its borders to Americans (or vice versa), or to Japan, or even to South Korea. Most wouldn't bother to go through the trouble of moving to a foreign country, and so the effect would be practically non-existent.
It's worth noting that before the Great Depression, strict residency controls and work permits were not an issue. Someone coming from Europe could work in America, and vice versa. Work permits were part of the whole protectionist agenda dreamed up by world governments at the time, many aspects of which (such as the Smoot-Hawley tariffs) so decimated world trade that they were responsible for dragging the world even deeper into an economic slump.
Of course, some might point out that I'm a person who likes to travel - and work - in foreign countries, and so I'm biased in favor of more lax work permit regulations. Fine, I am. It doesn't mean I'm not right.
