Saturday, April 09, 2005
Why so many posts on Taiwan?
Good question, if I do say so myself. I guess I see Taiwan as the biggest potential cause for conflict in Asia in this century, and would like to find a way to avoid it. This century, heck, this MILLENIUM, will likely be Asia's, and I'm very interested in events going on over there. There's a huge shift of power going on from West to East, and we need to think very hard about how that transition will take place.
There is no alternative to the shift. Asia accounts for half the world's population. They will (and are) demand(ing) a right to better themselves.
The only other question mark, North Korea, will likely implode on its own, leaving the rest of the world to scramble to put its unguarded nuclear arms under lock and key. China, however, will continue to grow in economic, political and military power. I think the era when countries attempt to use military might to rule the world is over. China, however, has a vision of its territorial borders based on historical conceptions. There are places where we should push back. China doesn't have a right to take territory from India, as an example.
The only thing keeping Taiwan from being part of China is America, though, and I simply see no reason for us to continue to do that. It's like Britain continuing to hold onto Hong Kong. No, America doesn't rule Taiwan as a former colonial power, but Taiwan and China have a weird history, and its time for them to work it out without America skewing the results.
We should encourage Taiwan and China to start discussions on reunification. Somehow I think the Chinese government would give them a great deal of de facto independence. China would likely demand control of foreign policy, but Taiwan HAS no foreign policy (partly due to Chinese isolation of Taiwan, to be sure), so that's not such a big tradeoff. That would leave Taiwan to run its own affairs in much the same fashion as they do currently.
That, at least, is what I THINK would happen. If I'm right, though, I question why its worthwhile to risk war in order to fight it, particularly when the Chinese totalitarian system has an expiration date of its own making (economic development and the desire for self-determination that brings).
Good question, if I do say so myself. I guess I see Taiwan as the biggest potential cause for conflict in Asia in this century, and would like to find a way to avoid it. This century, heck, this MILLENIUM, will likely be Asia's, and I'm very interested in events going on over there. There's a huge shift of power going on from West to East, and we need to think very hard about how that transition will take place.
There is no alternative to the shift. Asia accounts for half the world's population. They will (and are) demand(ing) a right to better themselves.
The only other question mark, North Korea, will likely implode on its own, leaving the rest of the world to scramble to put its unguarded nuclear arms under lock and key. China, however, will continue to grow in economic, political and military power. I think the era when countries attempt to use military might to rule the world is over. China, however, has a vision of its territorial borders based on historical conceptions. There are places where we should push back. China doesn't have a right to take territory from India, as an example.
The only thing keeping Taiwan from being part of China is America, though, and I simply see no reason for us to continue to do that. It's like Britain continuing to hold onto Hong Kong. No, America doesn't rule Taiwan as a former colonial power, but Taiwan and China have a weird history, and its time for them to work it out without America skewing the results.
We should encourage Taiwan and China to start discussions on reunification. Somehow I think the Chinese government would give them a great deal of de facto independence. China would likely demand control of foreign policy, but Taiwan HAS no foreign policy (partly due to Chinese isolation of Taiwan, to be sure), so that's not such a big tradeoff. That would leave Taiwan to run its own affairs in much the same fashion as they do currently.
That, at least, is what I THINK would happen. If I'm right, though, I question why its worthwhile to risk war in order to fight it, particularly when the Chinese totalitarian system has an expiration date of its own making (economic development and the desire for self-determination that brings).
